In the last article we have finished discussing some basic NFL football betting guide on the preseason.. Now let’s move on to overall ATS trends, the underdogs are 406-335-27, 54.8 percent ATS in all preseason games since 2000 and because of that, it is only wise to blindly follow dogs on Week 1 and Week 4. It makes sense because those two weeks are when the starters play the least if at all. In Week 1, the coaches are still evaluating the reserves and Week 4 because starters are being rested before the season opener the following week.In totals, the ‘under’ is a nondescript 388-381-8 from the 2000 preseason, but as you will see once we get to our trends for each specific week, each one has a discernable total pattern.
Before getting to that point, here is the average combined score per week since 2000:HOF Game + Pre-Week 1 – 35.0Pre-Week 2 – 37.1Pre-Week 3 – 39.0Pre-Week 4 – 37.3Take note that we have combined the Hall of Fame Game and Week 1 of preseason as one week, and that there is direct correlation between the scoring averages and the playing time of the starters. Games are lower scoring in Week 1 when teams are in the evaluation stage, and then the scoring increases over the next two weeks, peaking in Week 3 when starters play the longest before dropping in Week 4 when many of the starters sit. HOF Week – Pre – Week 1All HOF and Week 1 underdogs are 108-88-10, 55.1 percent ATS, and if you are fortunate Yalla shoot english enough to find underdogs of +3½ or more, they are 33-24, 57.9 percent ATS in Week 1.
However, those are becoming a rare breed as only two opening games last season had lines higher than +3 at Pinnacle, and the underdogs split those games 1-1 ATS.Pre-Week 2This week is perhaps the one with the most profit potential ATS, because of the most angles that have been profitable over the last 12 pre-seasons. Notably just about all of those angles are inversely correlated to team’s Week1 result.More specifically, all Week 2 teams coming off of a straight up loss are 110-76-2, 59.1 percent ATS while all coming off of a win are 78-112-1 for a 58.9 percent ATS fade!
Breaking down Week 2 teams off of a loss further, road teams are 54-34-1, 61.4 percent ATS and underdogs are an unbelievable 62-25-2, 71.3 percent ATS! Braking down Week 2 teams off a win, home teams are 36-54 for a 60.0 percent fade and favorites are 34-56-1 for a 62,2 percent fade. Finally, any team off of a loss facing any team off of a win is 63-33-1, 65.6 percent ATS. Pre-Week 3You can expect the starters to play longest in this week and that is why it is similar to regular seasons, with games being higher scoring and favorites within reason having a chance to shine.Pre-Week 4From great play, we go to sloppy playing with games being dominated by reserves and thus a return to blind underdog dominance. As you might expect, blindly playing all Week 4 underdogs has gone 101-80-8, 55.8 percent ATS since 2000.